The US Department of Commerce Imposes Tariffs on More Imported Auto Parts, SHFE Tin Prices Still Hover Around 273,000 yuan/mt [SMM Tin Morning News]

September 17, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) opened slightly higher and fluctuated downward during the night session, closing at 272,900 yuan/mt, up 0.07% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to Reuters, the US Department of Commerce stated on Tuesday that it will consider industry requests to impose tariffs on additional imported auto parts on national security grounds in the coming weeks. In May, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on over $460 billion worth of imported automobiles and auto parts annually, but subsequently reached agreements to reduce tariffs for some countries. The US Department of Commerce stated on Monday that domestic producers of automobiles or auto parts, or any industry association, may request tariffs on additional parts. (2) Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, posted that the national passenger vehicle industry inventory at the end of August 2025 was 3.16 million units, down 130,000 units MoM. Industry inventory reached a two-year high of 3.5 million units in April. While retail sales were boosted by the trade-in policy, manufacturers remained relatively cautious in production. Automakers controlled production more rationally from May to August, reducing inventory pressure on dealers and leading to continued destocking during this period. By August, overall industry inventory had dropped to 3.16 million units, with a slight decrease overall. Manufacturer inventory accounted for 23.9%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM. The decline in industry inventory was mainly in channel inventory, easing pressure on dealers. Based on inventory at the end of August 2025 and future sales projections, the current inventory can support 42 days of sales, compared to 52 days in August 2023 and 42 days in August 2024, indicating a significant reduction in overall inventory pressure this August. (3) According to CINNO Research statistics, the combined semiconductor revenue of the top 10 global semiconductor equipment suppliers in H1 2025 exceeded $64 billion, up about 24% YoY. The top 10 equipment suppliers in H1 were the same as in 2024, with no changes in the top five rankings. ASML's H1 revenue was about $17 billion, ranking first; Applied Materials' H1 revenue was about $13.7 billion, ranking second; Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA ranked third, fourth, and fifth, respectively. In terms of revenue, the combined semiconductor business revenue of the top five equipment suppliers in H1 was nearly $54 billion, accounting for about 85% of the top 10 total.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas such as Yunnan. Some smelters maintained shutdowns for maintenance in September (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China declined, and some producers reduced their operating rates. Electronics industry: The electronics terminal in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting essential needs. Other sectors: Demand remained stable in areas such as tinplate and chemicals, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Tin prices fluctuated relatively small and remained at a relatively high level, with most downstream and end-user enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement strategies. The vast majority of traders only transacted around 10 mt yesterday, and very few traders transacted more than one truckload. Overall, spot market transactions were relatively sluggish.

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